The June, July, August (JJA) period is normally dry season over most parts of South western, Central, Lake Victoria basin and parts of Eastern region but a continuation of rainy season for northern Uganda. It usually marks the end of the first rainfall season and a harvesting season for crops in most parts of the country.
It has been observed that the major physical conditions likely to influence the weather conditions over Uganda and the rest of the countries in the Greater Horn of African region for the forecast period of June to August 2021 are:
i) The neutral state of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over tropical Pacific Ocean ii) The current neutral and weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to develop for July to August period 2021
iii) The influence of regional circulation patterns, topographical features and large inland water bodies
Based on the above considerations as well as details of the climatology of Uganda and scientific tools used for climate analysis and prediction, Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has come up with the following detailed seasonal rainfall outlook for JJA 2021 as follows